São Paulo townhouses at R$5.6m–R$8.5m: what does 38 days really indicate?

cyclesAndSignal

First-time buyer
The 38-day figure looks useful, but I am not convinced it represents genuine time on market. My São Paulo sample consists mainly of townhouses asking between R$5,645,000 and R$8,467,000, and completed prices are much harder to trace than advertised ones.

Transaction costs may affect negotiations, although condition, exact street and seller expectations seem more likely to explain why similar homes move at different speeds. Before approaching several sellers, which facts would you request first: the original listing date, price-cut history, recent completed sales, financing issues or repair needs? I could then make an offer only where those answers support it and continue watching the rest.
 
I would not put transaction fees first. Within one price bracket, the larger differences are more likely to be exact location, condition and whether the seller has priced for negotiation. Also, 38 days of visibility is not necessarily 38 days on the market if listings are withdrawn and reposted. Ask when it was first marketed and whether the price has changed.
 
I would want a street-level comparison, but broad neighbourhood labels make that difficult. Short distances in São Paulo can mean different noise, access and immediate surroundings, so two portal listings may not compete for the same buyers at all.

Following the point about withdrawn and reposted adverts, ask for the original marketing date and the full address of any supposed comparable. Then check whether the completed sales are actually nearby and similar in condition. If they are spread across several distinct pockets, the 38-day midpoint should not guide an offer.
 
One more missing detail: are you comparing renovated properties with homes that need substantial work? At R$5,645,000–R$8,467,000, buyers may still discount heavily for uncertain renovation scope. Listing photos and descriptions often make that distinction less clear than an in-person inspection would.
 
I partly disagree with dismissing transaction costs. They may not explain why one townhouse sells and another does not, but they can widen the gap between an acceptable offer and the seller’s net expectation. That said, motivation probably matters more: an owner testing the market behaves differently from one working to a deadline.
 
For each property, I’d record the first-seen date, every asking-price change, any disappearance and reappearance, condition, exact micro-location, and whether the agent indicates flexibility. Then ask for two or three genuinely comparable completed transactions, including completion timing. If they only answer with current competing listings, you still have asking evidence rather than sale evidence.
 
Buyer financing could also separate quick sales from stale stock, but ask rather than assume. Is the seller open to an offer dependent on financing, and is there anything about the property that could complicate a lender’s assessment? The relevance will vary by buyer and property, so this is one area where a local adviser may need to confirm the details.
 
The withdrawn stock point is important. A listing that vanishes may have sold, but it may also have been paused, moved to another agent or simply taken off the market. I would ask directly about the outcome of any disappeared comparables. Otherwise your apparent quick-sale group could include properties that never transacted.
 
Before replying, narrow each conversation to three requests: the original marketing date, the history of price changes, and the closest completed sale the agent considers comparable. Then ask why it is comparable—same street context, condition and townhouse characteristics—not just a similar asking price. Your 38-day figure is useful for screening, but not yet strong evidence that a property is fresh, stale or correctly priced.
 
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