Riyadh condos at 86 days: market shift or listing-sample bias?

N

noor.lark

Buyer
Putting the numbers first: Riyadh condos listed between SAR 3,375,000 and SAR 5,062,000 appear to be taking roughly 86 days to find a buyer. The outliers mostly seem connected to rental regulation, but my sample relies heavily on listings that remain online.

Would recent completed sales support that 86-day picture, or is surviving inventory making the market look slower than it is? I’m trying to decide whether this reflects a real change this month or simply the way I built the sample.
 
To clarify, I’m not treating 86 days as a citywide figure. I’m mainly looking for a sensible way to separate a genuine slowdown from listing bias. Would you start with completed deals, new-listing volume, withdrawn properties, or the timing of price reductions?
 
Completed deals should come first. Active listings tell you how old the unsold stock is, not how quickly typical properties sell. Withdrawals matter too, because an overpriced condo can disappear without becoming a completed sale. I’d compare listing date, first price cut and completion date where those points are available.
 
I see why completed deals are being treated as the starting point, but I’m hesitant to compare them before tightening the sample. Condos in different parts of Riyadh can behave differently even within the SAR 3,375,000 to SAR 5,062,000 band, so a combined 86-day figure may not represent any one area.

Condition can create the same distortion. A completed, well-presented unit is a poor benchmark for one needing substantial work just because their prices overlap. I would first divide the records by neighbourhood and condition, then compare completed, active and withdrawn outcomes inside each group.
 
Completed deals matter, but relying on them first has a timing cost: they may not reveal a sudden rise in supply this month. A condo completed recently reflects an earlier buying decision, while ten fresh competing listings would change the seller’s position now.

Use two branches. If new-listing volume and ageing stock are stable, give more weight to recent completions and accepted prices. If supply is rising, track active and withdrawn properties alongside those sales before deciding that 86 days signals a broader slowdown.
 
Buyer financing and seller motivation could explain more than rental regulation. A seller testing SAR 5,062,000 without urgency behaves differently from someone who needs to close, even if the properties look comparable. Divide the sample into unchanged listings, reduced listings and withdrawn listings. Median time would also be more informative than letting a few long-running outliers drive the result.
 
I would not choose between completed sales and current inventory yet. The compromise is a small table split by neighbourhood and condition, recording original price, current price, first reduction, days listed and outcome—completed, active or withdrawn.

Then apply a simple test. If roughly 86 days appears across the separate groups, the slowdown argument gains support. If it mainly comes from unreduced listings or properties that later disappear, the figure is more likely being driven by the sample than by the wider Riyadh market.
 
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