Johannesburg market check: -4.2% movement and 104 days on market - local supply

A

AishaSlate

Homeowner
Established
The 104-day figure does suggest excess local supply, but I hesitate to treat it as the main explanation without knowing what the 4.2% decline measures. I’m following Johannesburg small multifamily properties from ZAR 12,300,000 to ZAR 18,450,000, and condition appears to create large differences between them.

My decision rule is fairly simple: if sound buildings have recent completed sales near current asks and financeable buyers are still competing, I would start making supported offers. If the movement is only in advertised prices and inventory is continuing to build, I would wait for clearer reductions. Neighbourhood-level examples, cut dates and completed outcomes would be most useful.
 
I would separate Johannesburg CBD walk-up multifamily buildings from the wider city before drawing that conclusion. The 104-day figure supports your supply argument only if withdrawn and relisted stock is captured consistently. Otherwise, apparently new listings may be older stock returning with a different price or agent.
 
What exactly does the 4.2% measure: initial asking prices, later asking prices, or completed sales? That distinction could reverse the interpretation. I’d also split “condition” into maintenance needs, occupancy and major capital work. Buyers may price those risks very differently even within the same neighbourhood.
 
I’m not convinced supply is doing most of the work. Buyer financing can produce the same pattern: cleaner properties attract more financeable offers, while buildings needing substantial work face a smaller buyer pool and wider negotiation. Are the properties similarly occupied, or are vacant and tenanted buildings being compared together?
 
That is fair. Seller motivation could also blur it. A price reduction after 30 days means something different from one made close to the 104-day mark, especially if the second seller then withdraws rather than accepts an offer. The original list date and date of each cut would help.
 
A simple tracker would settle much of this. Record neighbourhood, property type, first-list date, every price cut, withdrawal or relisting, visible condition, occupancy status where stated, and completed price where available. Compare buildings within narrow areas rather than treating all Johannesburg small multifamily supply as one market.
 
Neighbourhood boundaries deserve more attention here. Johannesburg CBD, Berea and Hillbrow should not automatically be combined just because the stock may look similar on a portal. I’d also keep walk-up blocks separate from small multifamily properties with materially different layouts or operating demands. Otherwise the condition discount may actually be a location or property-type discount.
 
For the buy-now-versus-wait decision, I’d avoid relying on the 4.2% movement alone. First identify sound buildings whose sellers have already made a meaningful cut, then compare those with recent completed sales in the same tight area. If cuts are increasing while listings and withdrawals both rise, waiting may help; if good-condition stock is clearing while only compromised buildings linger, waiting could simply leave you with weaker choices.
 
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