Contingency and hidden risks for a 180 m² Tokyo retail renovation

walksAndKey

Property investor
Established
The preliminary figure on the table is ¥30,140,000, but I hesitate to treat it as a reliable ceiling. This is a 180 m² Tokyo retail unit, and the proposed refurbishment covers wet areas, finishes, electrical review and some energy improvements without adding an extension.

The finishes can be simplified later. Concealed moisture, inaccessible services or structural work around penetrations and kitchen equipment would be much harder to reverse once construction begins. Before choosing a contingency, what surveys or trial openings would you arrange, and what should bidders confirm about exclusions, material lead times and permit-related delays?
 
I would start with a 15% contingency and consider moving toward 20% if the kitchen and bathrooms are changing position. Before fixing that number, ask bidders to list exclusions explicitly: opening walls, making good after inspections, electrical upgrades beyond “checks,” plumbing access, moisture remediation, disposal and work required by permit comments. A low headline price is not useful if those items sit outside it.
 
How old is the existing fit-out, and will the unit be vacant during construction? Those two facts could change the sequencing considerably. I would also want trial openings near wet areas and confirmation of where plumbing can actually be accessed. “No structural extension” does not necessarily mean no structural work if penetrations or heavy kitchen equipment affect the existing building.
 
The unit will be vacant, so at least we are not trying to keep retail operations running around the works. The point about relocated services is helpful: the current budget describes the kitchen and bathrooms, but does not clearly separate reuse of existing routes from new plumbing access.

I will ask for exclusions and assumptions in a common format, plus pricing for trial openings before finalising the design. I am leaning toward protecting contingency rather than using it to improve finishes.
 
I agree with protecting the contingency, but I would not automatically set 20% aside and assume the problem is solved. Unknown scope can consume any percentage. Spend a small part of the pre-construction budget reducing uncertainty: moisture investigation, selective openings, electrical capacity and distribution clarification, and a permit responsibility schedule. Then request a programme showing approval periods, long-lead selections and the order of kitchen, plumbing, electrical and finishes. Confirm local requirements with the relevant Tokyo professionals rather than relying only on contractor allowances.
 
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