Closing-price guess for a 245 m² villa after 64 days

Y

yard.steady

Homeowner
Established
Villa in the local market: 3 bedrooms, 245 m², asking €565,800, on the market for 64 days and described as being in average condition. What closing price would you predict? Post one number and the two facts driving it. Imaginary bragging rights to the closest estimate. I’m particularly curious whether people give more weight to condition, time on market or any building reserves.
 
€540,000. My two drivers are the 64 days on market and the average condition. Neither necessarily signals a distressed seller, but together they suggest there should be room below asking without assuming a dramatic discount.
 
€552,000. I’m weighting the 245 m² floor area and the fact that it has only three bedrooms, since the layout may narrow the buyer pool. Has the asking price stayed at €565,800 for all 64 days, or were there earlier reductions? That would change my guess considerably.
 
€525,000, based on the 64 days and average condition. I think €552,000 is too close to asking when we know nothing about local supply or renovation needs. On the other hand, 64 days alone is a weak signal; in a slow local market it may be entirely normal.
 
€535,000. The asking price and the 245 m² floor area are my two inputs. Before changing that number, I’d want one genuinely comparable completed sale rather than another active listing. I’d also separate cosmetic “average condition” from expensive work, because that wording is too broad to price confidently.
 
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