For April 2025, I tracked a narrow group of five-bedroom detached homes in Hong Kong priced from HK$3,182,000 to HK$4,774,000. Their current marketing period is roughly 59 days. Property tax appears to influence the overall cost more than the monthly headline figure. Would you treat this as ordinary property-level variation, or an early change in this segment?
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Are 59-day marketing periods a shift for Hong Kong five-bed detached homes?
- Thread starter gardensAndCorner
- Start date
I would not call a change from marketing time alone. Compare the asking prices with recent completed sales in exactly the same neighbourhoods. If sales are still completing near comparable asking levels, 59 days may simply reflect the small and varied nature of this group.
How did you define Hong Kong and calculate the 59 days? A median across active listings would tell a different story from an average that includes completed or withdrawn properties. Neighbourhood boundaries also matter enormously when the sample is this narrow.
Withdrawn stock is the missing piece for me. Listings that disappear without a sale can make the remaining active group look healthier than it is. I would track new listings, completions and withdrawals separately rather than trying to extract a trend from one combined marketing-period number.
Agreed on separating withdrawals, but property condition could still explain much of the spread. Five bedrooms and detached status do not make two homes close substitutes. A dated property needing substantial work may sit while a better-presented one at a similar headline price moves.
I’m less dismissive of the 59 days. It could be an early signal if sellers normally respond sooner but are now waiting longer before cutting. Note the first price reduction for each listing and how long it then remains available. Price-cut timing may reveal more than the final marketing period.
That would be useful, although a late cut can reflect seller motivation rather than the market. Someone testing an ambitious price behaves differently from a seller working to a deadline. I’d record whether a listing starts above nearby completed-sale evidence before interpreting the timing.
What does “property tax” cover in your comparison? The term can refer to different costs, and the treatment depends on the buyer and transaction. Without knowing which charge you included and whether it is one-off or recurring, it is hard to judge why it outweighs the monthly headline.
Buyer financing should also be kept separate from the property observations. Two listings with similar prices can face different pools of buyers if condition, valuation or financing assumptions differ. A longer marketing period might therefore reflect difficulty completing at the asking price, not a broad fall in interest.
measureTheYard
First-time buyer
I would build a simple listing history for each home: first appearance, original price, each reduction, withdrawal or completion, and the latest known status. Then group them by the tightest practical neighbourhood boundary and broad condition. With a narrow segment, individual histories will be more informative than one average.
There is also a danger of making the groups so tight that each contains only one or two very different homes. I’d keep the raw cases visible, but still compare new-listing volume month by month. If supply rises while completed sales do not, the 59 days becomes more meaningful.
PlainPebble
Real estate lawyer
I would wait for another observation period before calling it a shift. One month can be distorted by listings carried over from earlier dates. The stronger evidence would be several things moving together: more new stock, more withdrawals, earlier or deeper asking-price changes, and fewer recent completions.
So the cautious reading is “possible early change, not demonstrated yet.” Preserve the April 2025 snapshot, clarify the tax calculation and the definition of 59 days, then revisit the same homes rather than replacing them with a fresh sample. That will show whether they sell, cut, remain available or quietly leave the market.