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How was AED 7,724 established: completed leases for comparable 4-bed units, or an asking-rent estimate for the new building? Your vacancy allowance is sensible, but it does not protect against the rent itself being optimistic. I’d also model a tenant change as a separate event, including...

Is “this month” based on listings that entered the market this month, or everything observed this month? The second group includes older stock and will naturally skew the picture. I’d use entry-month cohorts and allow them time to resolve before comparing completed outcomes.