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A simple comparison table would help here. For each plausible comparable, note the immediate neighbourhood, original public ask, later cuts, observed days listed, condition, withdrawal or completion status, and any final price you can actually verify. Keep unconfirmed agent comments separate...

A sensible sequence would be: confirm the agreement and notice timing, verify that the comparables are genuinely similar, prepare a net-cost comparison for renewal versus turnover, and contact the tenant early enough for a calm discussion. The message can be simple: acknowledge their strong...