Buy in Lagos at 4.51%, or wait and risk stronger competition?

I would prefer to proceed with the Lagos purchase, but only if it works without depending on a future refinance. The price is NGN 1,938,000,000 and the offered mortgage rate is 4.51%. Waiting might produce cheaper borrowing, yet it could also mean facing more competition if demand strengthens.

Rather than trying to time both markets, I want to test the loan in a calmer order: current monthly cost, a higher-rate scenario, any reset, and the cost of holding or reselling. I also need to include arrangement fees and check whether early repayment would make refinancing expensive. Which assumptions would you stress first, and how much weight would you give to the possibility of lower rates later?

I would test the purchase without assuming any refinancing. Calculate the payment at 4.51%, then at meaningfully higher reset rates, and include every arrangement fee in the cost. If it still works and you expect to hold the property for a suitable period, a future rate reduction becomes a benefit rather than something the purchase depends on.

A few missing facts change the answer: Is 4.51% fixed, variable or fixed only for an initial period? What is the loan-to-value, and how long is the comparison period? Also check whether early repayment is penalised. A low headline rate can be less attractive if the fee is large or the rate resets quickly.

I’m not convinced cheaper mortgages automatically mean this property becomes more expensive. Lower rates can increase demand, but the outcome also depends on the particular Lagos segment, the seller’s urgency and how many comparable properties are actually available. Waiting is still a gamble, but so is paying today’s asking price because of a theoretical future bidding rush.

Compare scenarios using total cash outlay, not just the monthly instalment. One column could be buying now at NGN 1,938,000,000 with the 4.51% offer and its fees. Another could assume a lower future rate but a higher purchase price. Add a third where the rate never falls. Use the same holding period and deposit in all three, then test an earlier-than-planned sale.

The earlier-sale scenario is important because it exposes two issues at once: resale risk and financing restrictions. Ask the lender for the exact early-repayment terms and whether the mortgage is portable to another property. I would also ask what happens at the first rate reset, rather than comparing 4.51% with an imagined future introductory rate.

There is another practical dividing line: would buying leave enough liquidity for purchase costs, property expenses and an income interruption? Being able to make today’s payment is not the same as being comfortable after completion. I’d set a maximum stressed monthly payment first, obtain the full loan cost and reset schedule, and only then decide whether this specific property fits—without relying on either appreciation or refinancing.