Financing could overturn the conclusion even if the unlevered numbers look acceptable. Model the interest rate, repayment structure and refinancing assumptions separately from the property yield. Then stress three cases: lower rent, extra vacancy after tenant turnover, and a major repair...
The renewal deadline is the point to work back from, because delaying the checks could leave no room for a properly timed proposal. The tempting option is €2,761, but losing a reliable tenant in pursuit of that figure is the harder outcome to reverse.
For example, one empty month at €2,241...
Citywide aggregation may be hiding the real pattern. I’d divide Lisbon into smaller areas first, then compare similar properties within each. A shift in which areas supplied the completed deals could create the 8.5% gap without prices moving locally.
That matching issue is crucial. Comparing the average asking price of today’s inventory with the average price of recently completed deals can produce a gap simply because the two groups contain different property types, sizes or conditions.
The missing details are the actual loan amount, LTV, full mortgage term and whether the arrangement fee is paid upfront or added to the loan. Without those, 6.35% cannot really be judged against another quote. What does the offer say happens after year two, and are you comparing every lender...